11 Reasons the USA & the World Will End Within the Next 100 Years

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Alternate titles:

  • Violence, Pleasure or Both: What the End of the World Looks Like
  • Why Humanity Will Self Destruct Within the Near Future
  • Evidence The End is Already Under Way
  • The case against “Technological Utopianism”

First question is, why bother predicting, especially if its so far out?

  1. You can use this data to make decisions now on day-to-day behaviors. We all set long term goals (e.g. education, job training, retirement). All long term decisions are increasingly easier to make, the earlier they are started.
  2. Second, because it’s actually the job of a sociologist to predict future trends, like in the way an economist or you as an investor tries to predict the future, but I do not have time to write books and such.
  3. I plan for my children, grandchildren, etc… Anyone that does not increases their risk of failure, and yes, lots of people do not care beyond themselves.

Sociologists can shed light on the trajectory of society. You can call this speculation or prognostication. Either way, the processes and structures that go on above and below levels of society (individual/institution) are studied in order to draw more questions that help us theorize the impact of the changing human condition. This often informs future decision making.

A sociologist

It’s easy to see small pieces of the problem, but this is the 40,000 foot view piece, and one that could be useful over the next century. Most of these items each have one or more in-depth piece that I have written or am working on. Surprisingly, I am an ultra-optimist (probably not the same reasons as you though), so I hope for the best, and plan for the worst. With that said here are a top list of concerns which in my opinion, will be more true over time, than not.

I also discus misplaced tech-morality and optimism, although this is really a central focus on a technology blog I write.

Next 100 years: Down, Up, Down

My summary suggests that there will be in this order:

  1. A major down event, caused by global financial meltdown, world war, then at some point there will be a recovery.
  2. If we survive the recovery, we may return to the long term path of growth, but technology will ensure the decay of humanity. There will likely be a partial/wholesale rejection of current technologies.
  3. The final phase will be a self-induced destruction of humanity (my reasons are somewhat different from existential risk theorists).

Against Techno-Morality

Basic human theory says people are motivated by two things:

  1. Avoiding pain
  2. Increasing pleasure

Science leads to technology which leads to reduction of pain and increase in pleasure. The entire Enlightenment is based on the idea that we could learn enough to control our environment better, and therefore reduce risk, which it has done in several ways.

While technology (a.k.a. wealth) has reduced pain both via improved health/medicine, increased comfort/luxury, and so forth for 100’s of years, what people are increasingly disconnected with is the idea that such tools can also seriously increase violent risk (see “Modernity and the Holocaust”), and that it is dangerous to equate technological progress with either safety or morality, not just in the hands of a few (e.g. tyranny/oligarchy), but in the hands of the masses (e.g. techo-driven mobocracy, accelerating risk from individuals within society, and mass hedonism).

Therefore, because the world is safer, it is easy to falsely assume people are more moral, but there are two problems with this mode of thinking. First, we just have a reduced need to harm others (the current mainstream definition of morality) to achieve our own basic level of safety and success. If murder rates have declined for so long, then its because we are rich (maybe we are also rich because we are killing off customers less often). Second, there is a recent assumption that all morality is simply based on not harming others, and making sure people have what they need, but this is a relatively new and possibly temporary worldview. In other words, we increase one type of morality (avoiding pain), while ignoring the other (increasing pleasure).

But the pursuit of pleasure is not the only growing aspect of technology.

Against Techno-Optimism / Techno-Utopianism

One of the main points I want to make here is that I am arguing against the current growing trend of techno-optimism, which promises that technology is going to save humanity.

Virtually everyone I have asked thinks when science and computers are advanced enough, then all suffering will end, and life will be endless pleasure as philosophers such as Marx, economists such as Keynes, and other ideologists such as have independently stated).

Technological utopianism derived from the belief in technology — conceived as more than tools and machines alone — as the means of achieving a ‘perfect’ society in the near future. Such a society, moreover, would not only be the culmination of the introduction of new tools and machines; it would also be modeled on those tools and machines in its institutions, values and culture…More clearly, more methodically and more intensely than any other group, the technological utopians espoused positions that a growing number (even a majority) of Americans during these 50 years were coming to take for granted, or wanted to: the belief in the inevitability of progress and the belief that progress was precisely technological progress….The utopians were not oblivious to the problems technological advance might cause, such as unemployment or boredom. They simply were confident that advancing technology held the solution to those problems and to other, chronic problems, including scarcity, hunger, disease and war. In addition, they assumed that technology would solve the psychological problems that were increasingly worrisome, such as aggression, crowding, rudeness, and social disorder “

— Howard P. Segal, “The Technological Utopians”

More importantly is the general lack of concern that over the long run, technology will consume humanity in the endless pursuit of dopaminergic-pleasure (Phase II).

Most people will increase focusing on pleasure, and not happiness as long as technology cheapens it, which is why we can be sure the future will largely be a state of technological euphoria for most people, well, unless the world resets of course.

There will be counter trends to this of course, so I do not suggest that all will succumb, but likely many if not most will, because the reality is, it is already well underway today. Not only do we increasingly disconnect relationships in all spheres including marriage (divorce/marriage-less), community (church/community), family (daycare), and real friends (virtual friends/internet/TV), but this is all largely because of the pressure of entertainment, financial success, and other technological benefits.

Current Situation: Disparate Events, or All Part of the Same Underlying Cause?

I find it interesting that so many seemingly disparate things are happening simultaneously, not coincidentally, but because its all different manifestations of the same root problems, and many put the current world at existential risk. Notice we are seeing disruptions is seemingly unrelated channels, over the next few decades.

Current Disruptive Risks

  • economic bubbles/debt risk of the largest nation in history and the Western world
  • social/cultural infighting
  • geopolitical risk (e.g. WW3), only noticeable if you watch global military movements
  • technological disruption (singularity/advanced leverage risk/mass unemployment)
  • a decay of trust in most institutions (See Pew)
  • nation-state (globalization efforts and counter-efforts)
  • individual/behavioral moral decay
  • religious decay

And as technology accelerates change, this may accelerate changes in the rest of our lives, be it cultural, social, political, economical, etc….

But I tend to think most of this is greased by one common factor: wealth  (which I cover in depth elsewhere). 

This article focuses mainly on lesser known, or lesser publicized factors, which everyone should become more aware of if they are not already. There are two main parts to it:

Phase I: Destruction via Violence

Increased fear & violence as global debt, stagnant economies, govt. spending, poor monetary practices, and risk taking from all parties increases:

The main focus of this site is covering these risks in detail. The immediate world is at economic/political risk, and the USA, Europe, and some Asian nations are at the center of much of that risk. I do not know what will come from the ashes, but it is pretty clear that the societal changes that are coming will be very different from anything we know today.

Phase II: Destruction via pleasure

If we do get through the current economic/geopolitical issues without a total reset, a cultural/societal decay most likely will still occur, as it is already under way.  The best way I think to describe it will be: the great absorbing of humanity as machines increasingly substitute the need for people, at an increasingly efficient rate, supplying endless pleasure to the masses. I write about this on another site since it is such a large topic of its own http://humanit.home.blog.

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Global Asset Bubble: Economic Risk

If you read this site much, you will note that this is my main premise: the world is utterly broke, as evidenced by increasingly declining, and negative interest rates in attempts to hold up the ever sagging, rich, aging, first-world countries.

When it pops, the bubble will probably be spectacular because of its attempts to hold it off artificially for so long. I am not sure if there has ever been a global bubble as big as the one we are facing.

And when it pops, it’s not just the US, but global insecurity will likely arise when you realize that much of the world is pegged to the dollar (because the dollar is the most stable currency in the world, due largely to its strong economy).

Now, when Argentina, once the richest country in the world (per capita), quickly became one of the poorest, it is because they loaded up on social services and dismantled a free economy and private property,  (A New Economic History of Argentina, Volume 1). They lost all control of their economy for the next 100 years, and still have problems, but luckily they pegged their currency to the US dollar. 

“From that moment on, everything was statism, deficit crises, inflation and insufficient fixes, that turned into solutions as precarious as they were counterproductive in the long term.”

Global Financial Debt and Financial Risk

In addition to the global asset bubbles, let’s look at the debt

  1. Global debt is 2x what is was in 2008, and yet economies have not really recovered, and our economy was almost sucked up by a total collapse, instead of the recession, thanks to the bank bailouts.
  2. After WW2, the USA was the largest creditor nation in the world, and now we are the largest debtor nation in the world.
  3. The values, including work ethics, of America are vary different from post WW2, and are unlikely to change.
  4. Demographics are quickly changing as baby boomers retire and put strain on the financial system.
  5. The children today bear the burden of debt by seniors today.
  6. Financial contagion, which is risk that debt will suck in the world is worse than 2008 (see Bear Stearns and the near collapse of banks in 2008), is highly risky, and economies are again unstable, which is why the Brexit and attempts to slow immigration is no surprise to me.
  7. Social security is almost spent, Medicare is growing, and make-shift bandages on it do not look good, especially when you consider the latest treasury report admits the path is “unsustainable.” Just read the latest report from the Treasury office. Here are some highlights on the 75 year outlook
    1. 530% debt to GDP ratio.
    2. $53.8 trillion in new debt
    3. Main assets are student loans
    4. I have a post that goes into more depth here

Let me simplify: We are out of money. We have spent the future too.

Decline of the dollar (end of hegemony)

When the dollar weakens, then what will save us? If the stability and global leadership of the US is gone, the world will be on shaky ground. There is no such thing as a permanent hegemony either, which the USA has, so it is not a matter if “if”, but “when”. True, this could still be 50 years out, but some theorists think 30 years is a good starting point. My other posts go far more into depth about when and why it will happen.

Yes, more countries are trying to diversify away from the dollar. And the end of hegemony always results in

If you want to see the inflationary risk we are approaching, sign up on my email list, because I am working on putting together a clear picture of it.

Other articles here discuss the simple fact that most wars are really about money (wanting more, or not having enough). Combine that with a few facts showing our current financial risk levels.

This deserves its own point, but the inflation of our currency surely guarantees that at some point, the US currency will become worth the paper it is printed on, and I am working on a timeline for that at the money.

WW3 Risks

War with Iran, Russia, and possibly China seem likely as I have written about since 2016, so I wont cover that here. But basically, as hegemony weakens here, and desperation for global assets increases in the face of surmounting debt, so do risks of war. The main problem I see is that where there is no leader within an institution (global or local), there is no order, and therefore chaos ensues.

But this time, unlike the last two world wars, it seems likely that the USA will be much more involved as it attempts to stabilize itself. While the war will probably be larger than WW2, the deaths as a percent of total poulation will probably be less than ever.

It is also easy to see that as the world gets safer, death/war/violence will seem more unacceptable and scary, and therefore all wars in the future will increasingly be between machines and computers (cyber-warfare), and not directly involve people, so in a way, really just an economic battle. We are already partway there with drones being guided by pilots from an office.

Globalism = Global risk

Let’s look at a more abstract view for a minute. Compound the above items with the fact that the world has never been so interconnected (globalism), with the worlds longest supply chains, you can see how risk is increasingly interconnected.

  • Global economic risk is increasing
  • Group think behavior from first world nations
  • Disease/pandemic risk as travel is increasing
  • Fragility: Supply chains increasingly large, which means we are far more than ever reliant on outside sources for essential needs.
  • War risk as weapons get cheaper and increase in range and destructive power

This is one reason why I think there is an increasing retreat from globalism, which is to say, increasingly large societies and governing groups. Even the nation state, which peaked last centruey, after colonialism declined, may be doomed as their citizens gain more and more power.

Civil Unrest

Global unrest is already here, in case you have not noticed.

  • The Brexit,
  • Growth of strong leaders around the world,
  • The polarization of America continue to grows (Pew).
  • Technology replacing jobs faster than ever
  • Cultural breakdown – Race, class, and gender are a big part (read the news lately?)
  • Cultural breakdown – Hierarchy and order
    • This also results in declining value for traditional authority, leadership, hierarchy, and will grow within all institutions ranging from federal government down to local and family units. Very similar to the breakdown of hegemony of the USA–I think they will coincide neatly. Contrary to common belief, anarchy is more likely in the near future than fascism or dictatorial control.
  • Unstable world

But should we be surprised? The decline of all major institutions in America have been declining for several decades, as several studies from Pew show. This includes government, media, business, religion, and even family. When all trust is lost in these institutions, what will be left (another clue that localism/anarchy is in our future)?

The Pursuit of Globalism

This point is maybe not as useful as the others, but it is worth considering as a major force currently causing disruption globally. Like many competitions, you can think of historical control pushing in two opposite directions:

  1. Global or national governing power
  2. Individual/local/community governing power

Basically, national governments seek more power, and so do global organizations, and so do the common people and communities.

Currently, the UN for example wants to institute global taxes and global laws. Russia wants to expand its control over former soviet countries. The US wants to increase its military presence. The Federal government power has been growing over state and local for decades. Sometimes its just political urging, but other times its via force, often economic. Citizens often seek to prevent this takeover when it negatively affects them.

As the meaning of borders weaken, companies become global, and citizens more mobile, the result is that more international laws get made like recent privacy laws on websites (e.g. GPDR and Canada spam laws). Many such laws involve technology and business, but will expand more with time. It is easy to believe that a “global world” demands “global laws.”

Attempts to create a “central government” (a.k.a. new world order) or an “international rule of law” makes sense to some elitists because they think their rules based on their own personal ethics should apply to everyone, irregardless of their local social values, ethics, and norms. A type of political colonialism that crushes freedom and diversity.

This may result in a struggle between central power and the citizens of the world. History has tended to favor individual/regional rule over central rule.

AI+Robots: Elimination of All Jobs, Meaning, Culture Shock, Rebellion

In case you did not hear: “73% of Americans say artificial intelligence will eliminate more jobs than it creates.”

Even without a global catastrophe, or, if a catastrophe happens, and we move to the next phase, the end looks no better. We seem to be on the verge of a large disruption. I’m guessing technology and jobs, are a big part of the economic problems.

If AI is the replacement for our brain, then robots are the brawn. When they both become generalized enough (meaning they can do a variety of tasks instead of just one or two), then job automation will result in the end of most jobs as we know them.

In all the videos you could watch on where AI (or machine learning) is now, and its projection, I find this is the most accurate and clear explanation. If you want to understand how advanced AI is, in the shortest amount of time, then spend 15 minutes to watch this. If you are in a hurry, start at 17 minutes into the video which shows the direction we are headed:

Which jobs will be first? Well, I can see the computers are mastering language, so language based jobs are getting closer. Here’s a list if you prefer: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/26/jobs-future-automation-robots-skills-creative-health

But really, no job is safe. Even teaching, counseling, and art will be more efficient than people. And no, robots will fix robots, not people.

Sure, AI will have some benefits, like reducing hunger, eliminating illness, etc.. but when do costs/risks outweigh benefits? and what does a world without challenge, struggle, goals, and the need for other people look like?Answer: Perhaps when we have so much food that 100% of the country may soon be overweight.

I am working on a really long piece to demonstrate this. This topic continues is point 11.

Mass Leisure: A.ka. Hedonism

Once the machines replace the need for human work, what do you think people will do with unlimited free time? The pursuit of pleasure and sensual self-indulgence, or simply: hedonism. Some philosphers think hedonism is the ultimate goal of humanity, while others such as myself think that is the anti-thesis, anti-climax, meaningless descent of humanity that will suck all joy from the human spirit. 

Free time

The amount of time people spend viewing entertainment grows yearly. Perhaps this is because the work week has declined for 100’s of years, as well as the average age of retirement. More leisure (free time) is the result of less work. So, with no work necessary, and living wage checks (as many futurists like myself predict), what do you think most people will do?

Will perhaps some people still find motivation to create (even though a computer will do it better)? Perhaps, but I doubt this will be the general trend. 

More specifically, we can break leisure down into two categories: experientialism and materialism, which are basically the same things.

Materialism

Is there any evidence of this? It is already happening. Our wants far exceed our needs, and no end in sight. This applies to everything we purchase to live.

There are very few clear, external and individual indicators for how materialism is affecting us. Some studies state that ALL Americans will be overweight by 2030’s, and 40% will be obese, and growing fatness is a global problem.

By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that state by 2034. In children, the prevalence of overweight (BMI >/= 95th percentile, 30%) will nearly double by 2030.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18719634

Sure, I know what some of you are thinking:  AI powered medicine will solve that and we will be able to eat non-stop as nanobots remove the calories; or, maybe the perfect diet drug will be made, to control our brains to simply limit intake. Either solution seems to make humans increasingly meaningless to themselves. 

Experientialism (the new materialism)

As time spent consuming media grows, we can predict the future a bit.

Some books/movies (e.g. Ready Player One) suggest that we will simply play video games 24×7, which doesn’t seem unlikely when you consider it fulfills unlimited fun at no cost, and already a growing trend.

Similarly, Facebook’s largest bet is on VR, so we can all tour the world from our couch, and I’m sure that’s just the beginning as technology drives the cost of everything down dramatically. Everything will be free as the last of the capitalists make fractions of a penny on the global population, and then in theory, everything will be free, except finite assets, but that is a long ways off.

Unlimited Pleasure & Everything

If the long term future promises anything in general, it is that whatever we wish for, we can have, because eventually, everything will become free. Many tech gurus would agree. Just think a thought and it will be on our doorstep within seconds. Our personal robots+AI will create stuff from dirt in theory, given enough time and energy. 

How could unlimited pleasure go wrong?

Voltaire said: “Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice and need.”  With AI/robots, the “need” part is no longer an issue, but boredom and vice? 

Since I already covered vice, what about boredom?

Boredom, Societal Frustration, & Revolution

Boredom leads to contempt, frustration, anger, etc… which leads me to my next risk.

I once lived in a town in Northern California that was a magnet for rich people. The only thing I really remember was how many kids there whose goal it seemed was to do the opposite of what was expected of them. Essentially, it seemed that they felt as if their lives were too easy, and they had no real challenges, so they became contemptuous of their lives, walking around shoeless, hitch-hiking everywhere, and getting into trouble.

Without real challenges and goals, it seems that many will become frustrated.

Permanent Classist Society

On one hand, we will all be richer than any previous generation, and on the other hand, we will all be born into a system ruled by super-computers, with everyone receiving a basic living wage. Trying to determine who gets paid what will not make any sense, because merit will no matter. Dis-agreement from its citizens? Yes.

It seems likely that we will live in a caste society, and although food may be free, finite resources will not be, but I am not sure on this though. What I am more sure about though is more people will fall into a lifestyle of complacency and hedonism.

This becomes even more of an issue if some people are able to implant AI into their brains and others object to this on moral grounds. So natural ability will mean nothing between these groups, and non-AI people wont stand a chance. This is probably one of the greatest risks of all.

Revolution against the machines

More importantly, as I discuss on an AI site that I write, what happens to a society in which its citizens income is determined at birth, and how will it be divided up fairly, especially considering millions of factors, its effect on the human spirit.

There is already a growth of risk of revolution from those who seek freedom for the individual and those who desire to give that control to the govt. Communist/socialist/fascist (tyranny), capitalist, libertarian, and class-based movements are growing today. But perhaps most of all, anarchy, anti-govt, and anti-tech seems highly plausible outcomes in the current trajectory.

While the future will absorb many people into its gravity pull of pleasure; it also seems just as likely to breed revolutionaries who want to overthrow the techno-feudal system.

We Wipe Ourselves Out via Technology: Existential Risk

This may be redundant for some of you, but most “future risk” predicting organizations share similar concerns about what they think will most likely destroy the world:

  • Nuclear war
  • AI (super intelligence)
  • Nanotech
  • Bio-engineered viruses (gets cheaper daily due to advancing biotech)
  • Global pandemics (thanks to globalization via cheap travel)
  • Bioengineered humans (modifying our genes to make super-humans)
  • Pollution

If you can’t figure out what the common thread between all these is, its advanced science.

Science leads to existential risk. It’s not that science is bad or useless–on the contrary, but as power of our tools grow it makes us more risky to ourselves, especially by any who use it to increase their power, status, fame, recognition, or control over others, which seems like a large percentage of the population.

Other stated risks like super-volcanoes and meteors are mentioned but historically infrequent. People x tools are a much more immediate risk.

Cultural Decay: A Decline in Moral Values

I have a challenge running, which is: name any and all moral behaviors that have improved over the last 50 years. The terms are that the behaviors need to be universally agreed upon (e.g. everyone agrees that cheating is bad); the morality cannot be mandated/enforced by law (e.g. violence is decreasing because there are more laws and regulation), and it needs to be measurable.

I will do a write-up at some point, but so far, most evidence clearly shows a real decline. Not surprisingly we would expect to see a decline in traditional systems that teach moral behavior, such as religion, which is usually perfectly aligned with materialism/wealth.

The easiest predictor of moral decay is wealth and opulence. Too much, or too little wealth, and you start running into problems, and clearly the “too much” side of wealth is a problem today in much of the Western World, although it probably does not recognize it.

Advance technology promises unlimited wealth, and what will happen when we dont need anything?

  • We will we not need other humans, including our own families
  • We will not need to work (coming soon)
  • Like work, love and care will be unneeded, therefore it will deplete
  • We will not need children
  • You won’t need education (life is automated, or if you’re plugged into a computer)
  • There will be no challenges
  • Anti-aging tech will allow us to live in this state increasingly long, or forever
  • Endless dopamine pursuit will rot us from inside as it robs happiness–even neuroscientists agrees

Conclusion: If we do not wipe ourselves physically, we will destroy all meaning of what it means to be human.

So there you go: technology, jobs, economics, society. It’s all mixed together, but you can start to see how the future is full of landmines.

I think the most likely scenario before us in this order are:

  1. Economic issues and war, and if we survive,
  2. The next cycle will continue where we are simply absorbed by technology, and most of us will live in “The Matrix,” which undoubtedly some people will want.

So how long do we have? Who knows, but Isaac Newton, the same man who discovered the 3 laws of physics and calculus before he was 21, thought the world might end, at least in its current form, somewhere between 2034 AD and 2060 AD. I find that fascinating as that does not sound so unbelievable, as the elimination for the need for people is accelerating one way or another.

In the words of the popular “simulation theory,” which popularly states that ‘maybe we are all living in a simulation,’ there is one other possibility the author mentions, which I think is the most likely:

The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of running high-fidelity ancestor simulations) is very close to zero.

Nick Bostrom

I agree, the likelihood that humanity will disappear in a technologically-driven black hole seems high, when compared to all other options.

What is Your Plan?

If any or most of this is likely, you should start working on a 10-50 year plan. As for me, I am already working some ideas.

When people ask me: “What can we do?” I tell them, I think the most important factor to realize is you have a lot of control over your immediate environment. Your life, your family, and your local community, and if that is not enough, well it gets a lot more challenging, but I suspect it will be far more common in the next 10-20 years.

As such, I think communities will start to develop outside of the mainstream system, especially as global risk mounts. E.g. GMO/organic, alternative medicine, rejection of govt./societally mandated programs, preppers, off-grid, home school/church, self-sustaining small communities, alternative crypto-currencies, crafting, private militias, etc… are all growing. Those are interesting localizing/independence led trends. Most may be even more expensive and less effective/efficient but autonomy may have untold benefits.

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